Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between two have received little attention. Here we analyze consequences global warming for agricultural workers crops they cultivate using a economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment physiological heat stress humans’ ability to work. Based metrics labor functions, combined meta-analysis yields, provide an analysis climate, both force, as well staple thereby accounting interacting effect land labor. sets crops, while also expanding highlight potential importance non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, yield within grains equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, widely overlooked dominant in most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa Southeast Asia. In those regions, 3 could reduce capacity agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices requiring much higher levels employment farm sector. welfare loss this level reach $136 billion, rising 5%,